Investing.com — China is expected to approve 10 to 15 new nuclear reactors each year from 2026 to 2030, with policymakers focused on standardizing designs, building in batches and advancing frontier technologies, according to industry experts.
A nuclear specialist with more than 15 years of experience said Hualong One will account for about 80 percent of new construction, alongside some CAP1400 units and limited use of Russian VVER designs.
China maintains strict safety rules that restrict inland sites, but the expert said location is not a constraint on the buildout.
Small modular reactors remain in development, with projects such as Linglong One and high temperature gas cooled and molten salt designs progressing.
The specialist said SMRs need modular, factory based production to become cost competitive, and that supply chains are not yet scaled. While domestic demand exists, most long term opportunity lies overseas in regions with weaker grids.
The expert said China is moving fusion development from research to engineering, with two major programs in Hefei and Shanghai each planning RMB10 billion to RMB20 billion of spending over three to four years.
The goal over the next three to five years is to achieve an engineering breakthrough that enables the first integrated demonstration. He said national projects offer clearer supply chain visibility than early stage startups.
Nuclear tariffs may continue to fall as more power is sold into the market. The expert said China’s low variable costs and stable fuel supply provide a competitive base, while financing costs remain the biggest swing factor for returns.
Fuel makes up less than 15 percent of total costs and diversification helps reduce volatility.
Localization of equipment has reached 80 to 90 percent. The next phase of development will focus on improving reliability and quality assurance.
Large scale exports remain challenging due to geopolitical sensitivities and the need for government level cooperation.